Stream 3 - The "Grand Experiment"
a: Introduction and Part 3 of Snow's 1855 Book, Map 2
OVERVIEW
Introduction to Snow's Re-issued Book by Wade Hampton Frost, M.D. (1880-1938)
Prominent epidemiologist Wade Hampton Frost, MD in 1936 was asked to write an introduction to a re-issuance of John Snow's book, the second edition of On the Mode of Communication of Cholera along with two other articles. At the time, Frost was a professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health. He had been Chair of the Department of Epidemiology from 1919 until 1938 and Dean of the School from 1931 until 1934. As a long-time admirer of John Snow, Frost had created educational material on Snow for his students, shared later with faculty and students at other public health schools.
Medical colleague Thomas M. Daniel, M.D. wrote in his 2004 book of Frost's professional achievements: "Frost was the first to understand the importance of transmission in poliomyelitis — knowledge that prepared the ground for the worldwide campaign against that disease; the first to understand the cyclical nature of influenza; the first to develop the historical cohort approach and undertake longitudinal cohort analyses; and the first to design life tables for expressing data in person-years."
Source: Daniel, T.M. Wade Hampton Frost, Pioneer Epidemiologist 1880-1938: Up to the Mountain, University of Rochester Press. illustrated edition (October 1, 2004).
Text in bold are Frost's views of John Snow as an epidemiologist and his classic study, "the Grand Experiment," involving the Lambeth (unexposed) and the Southwark and Vauxhall (exposed) water companies.

Photo in 1921, age 41
Source: Frost, Wade Hampton. Introduction, On the Mode of Communicaton of Cholera, second edition (reissued), Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1936.
Epidemiology at any given time is something more than the total of its established facts. It includes their orderly arrangement into chains of inference which extend more or less beyond the bounds of direct observation. Such of these chains as are well and truly laid guide investigation to the facts of the future; those that are ill made fetter progress. But it is not easy, when divergent theories are presented, to distinguish immediately between those which are sound and those which are merely plausible. Therefore it is instructive to turn back to arguments which have been tested by the subsequent course of events; to cultivate discrimination by the study of those which the advance of definite knowledge has confirmed.
A nearly perfect model is John Snow's analysis of the epidemiology of cholera which led him to the confident conclusion that the specific cause of the disease was a parasitic micro-organism, conforming in all essentials of its natural history to what is now known of the Vibrio cholerae. His central conclusion lies now within the boundaries of direct observation; it is reached by a shorter and easier path than that which he was obliged to follow. But his argument has the permanence of a masterpiece in the ordering and analysis of a kind of evidence which enters at some stage and in some degree into every problem in epidemiology.
Looking back to the time when Snow wrote, we are apt to be more impressed with the deficiency of his knowledge, lacking all that the technique of modern bacteriology has since supplied, than with the extent and significance of the positive facts at his command. With some exceptions, the communicable diseases of man and the domestic animals which are of common occurrence in Europe had been differentiated clinically; their gross and microscopic pathology was fairly well established; their characteristic distributions in nature were known, and it had been demonstrated for not a few of them that they could be artificially transmitted by inoculation of "morbid matter" in minute quantity. But for certain diseases, including the enteric infections, this demonstration was lacking, and the indirect evidence of communicability was by no means so plain as to be incontestable.
Ideas as to the nature of the materies morbi were converging toward present-day conceptions, but were not at all clearly focused. The analogy between infection and fermentation, which Fracastorius had perceived three hundred years earlier, was generally recognized; and moreover it was known that the processes of fermentation and putrefaction were constantly associated with the presence of living organisms of microscopic size, though whether or not these were spontaneously generated was still a matter of controversy. The active agent in conveyance of infection was generally pictured as being related in some way to the lower orders of known microorganisms, but not usually as being itself a living organism, still less commonly as being an obligate parasite, bound by the law of biogenesis as now accepted. A general theory of infection closely approximating modern views had, indeed, been clearly formulated by Henle [Friedrich Gustav Jakob Henle], in 1840, but it had not been widely accepted. The more common view related infectious diseases to micro-organisms much more loosely; and in England, the ideas embodied in the so-called "pythogenic" theory were much in favor.
In this state of uncertainty as to the nature of the more common diseases, cholera presented a riddle peculiarly difficult to solve by the indirect method of inference from its mode of occurrence. The difficulty was not lack of detailed information. The epidemics which swept across Europe in the middle third of the century were matters of tremendous concern and were diligently studied by offcial commissions and individuals. In England, where epidemics prevailed in 1831-32, 1848-49, and 1853-54, the studies were of notable excellence. The genius and industry of William Farr produced comprehensive reports of the epidemics of 1848-49 and 1853-54, and supplied current information while they were in progress; admirable factual reports were made by the General Board of Health and the Royal College of Physicians; and the literature of the day contained innumerable detailed accounts of the local dissemination of the disease. But the facts themselves were most confusing. Instances of local spread with every appearance of direct communication from person to person were offset by equally striking instances of failure to spread to those in close contact with the sick, and of the disease developing without traceable relation to prior cases. Moreover, the variations in the local prevalence of cholera appeared to be capricious in the extreme. If it seemed to be the rule that it prevailed most severely in lowlying places, and in a notably filthy environment, the exceptions to these and similar laws were too numerous to be disregarded.
The theories evolved to explain these complex facts were numerous and diverse, but so far as any one idea was dominant it was probably that expressed by Sutherland as follows:
It appears as if some organic matter, which constitutes the essence of the epidemic, when brought in contact with other organic matter proceeding from living bodies, or from decomposition, has the power of so changing the condition of the latter as to impress it with poisonous qualities of a peculiar kind similar to its own.[1]
To this was added the conception of "localizing influences" promoting the propagation of the poison, and "predisposing causes," increasing susceptibility to its effects. There were many differences of opinion as to whether the "cholera poison" might be spontaneously generated in different countries, or must be introduced from pre-existing foci; whether it was spread solely by diffusion through the atmosphere or attached itself to solid bodies; whether or not it was communicated by an effuvium (contagion) given off by the sick.
It is easier, at this distance, to see the defects in the current theories than to do them justice. Some were so vague and general as to be manifestly worthless, fitting one set of facts as well as another; others simply ignored some of the plain facts, as for instance when the General Board of Health resolutely closed its eyes to all evidence of communication from person to person or by commerce. But there were at least a few theories, such as Farr's, emphasizing the importance of elevation and drainage, which were well reasoned in accordance with an impressive array of facts. It is perhaps significant that they were directed so largely toward explanation of those phenomena of cholera which are still least explicable: its sudden extensions around the world, the vagaries of its geographic distribution, and its relation to climate, season, and weather.
How Snow perceived the thread of consistency which connected a seemingly chaotic mass of facts and followed it through to the conclusion that bacteriology has since confirmed, he himself tells plainly and simply, with the fresh enthusiasm of discovery, the restraint of a scientist. His account should be read once as a story of exploration, many times as a lesson in epidemiology.
In order to present the whole of Snow's argument, this volume reproduces in their entirety two of his works, his treatise On the Mode of Communication of Cholera, as published in 1855, and his address On Continuous Molecular Changes, More Particularly in Their Relation to Epidemic Diseases, delivered in 1853. The first of these is, by itself, a full and sufficient exposition of Snow's theory, evidence, and methods as applied to the specific problem of cholera. The second is important as connecting his views on cholera with his broad conception of epidemic diseases in general and relating these, in turn, to other natural phenomena. Together, these two dissertations show, one in broad outline, the other in detail, the pattern of his thought in epidemiology; his other papers in this field are not without interest, but they all fit into this general pattern, and their reproduction is not essential to the main purpose which this volume is intended to serve. Two of them, however, need to be mentioned, a prelude and a postscript, respectively, to his major work on cholera.
The treatise On the Mode of Communication of Cholera which is reprinted here is a second edition, "much enlarged," of a pamphlet published in the summer of 1849. This was followed immediately by a somewhat more extended paper published under the title "On the Pathology and Mode of Communication of Cholera" in the Medical Times and Gazette of November 2 and November 30, 1849. The essential difference between these two earlier papers and the expanded edition of 1855 is that the latter contains much new factual evidence, chiefly the analyses of mortality as related to the several water supplies of London in 1832 and 1849 and, of course, all the observations made in 1854. It has seemed unnecessary to reproduce the first paper in this volume, since it is included, for the most part in identical or slightly revised language, in the second edition; but it is important to remember that when Snow undertook his personal investigations in the epidemic of 1854 he already had in mind a definite and well matured theory which he was eager to put to the rigid test which the intermingling of two water supplies made possible.
The postscript to Snow's work of 1855 is his paper on Cholera and the Water Supply in the South Districts of London, published in October, 1856, when detailed statistics of the population using the two principal water supplies in each subdivision of this area became available from the report of an official inquiry conducted by the General Board of Health. Of this a brief account is given in an appendix to this volume. It is not altogether essential to Snow's original argument, which was already well established, but confirms it in detail and shows his keenness in statistical analysis.
How far Snow's ideas were original is diffcult to determine. He read widely and drew upon the ideas as well as the facts of his day, and it is certain that the general conception of epidemic disease which he expressed was not altogether unfamiliar at the time. Henle, approaching the subject from a different angle, had already expressed broadly similar views as to the nature of infectious diseases and, though no direct allusion to his work has been found in Snow's writings, he must have known of it, at second hand if not in the original. Budd [Dr. William Budd (1811-1880), English physician, infectious disease epidemiologist and and follower of Snow's research] certainly shared Snow's views, but notwithstanding that he himself had arrived at similar conclusions concerning cholera as early as 1849, he generously accords Snow full credit for independent and more complete development of the theory. The belief that cholera was communicable from person to person through a specific poison was not unusual. Some part of Snow's conception that cholera was due to a specific micro-organism, an obligate parasite, propagating only in the human intestinal tract and disseminated by ingestion of excreta, was expressed by a number of contemporary writers; but seldom if ever was the whole idea expressed, and no one else followed it through to such full development. That Snow's contemporaries considered his theory of cholera to be original is evidenced by the fact that they referred to it as "Dr. Snow's theory" and, in their discussions, differentiated it from all the other theories which it was customary to mention.
The extent to which the ideas and evidence advanced by Snow were to be accepted in his lifetime is fore shadowed in this passage from his own first paper on cholera (1849): "Many medical men to whom the above circumstances respecting the water have been mentioned, admit the influence of the water, without admitting the special effect of the new element introduced into it - viz., the cholera evacuations, in communicating the disease.They look upon the bad water as only a predisposing cause, making the disease more prevalent amongst those who use it -- a view which, in a hygienic sense, is calculated to be to some extent as useful as the admission of what I believe to be real truth, but which, I think, will be found to be untenable, when the circumstances are closely examined."
After Snow's evidence convicting the water supply of the Southwark and Vauxhall Company had been published, none but the most stubborn could deny the influence of contaminated water. And when the facts had been confirmed by the official inquiry which was completed in 1856, the case was not open to further argument. But what was accepted was merely the fact that impure water had, in some way, the effect of increasing the risk of cholera, and this had long been admitted by many. Snow's explanation of the fact was by no means accepted. Simon's [Dr. John Simon, Medical Officer of Health for the City of London ] report on the official inquiry which confirmed Snow's facts took pains to make this clear, coming to the conclusion that "under the specific influence which determines an epidemic period, fecalized drinking-water and fecalized air equally [Snow did not accept the miasmatic theory of bad air, and hence differed over the three words "fecalized air equally" in Simon's report] may breed and convey the poison." [2]
Even Farr, who had immediately seen the significance of Snow's first observations, who had given whole-hearted aid in extending them, and who was destined himself to play the principal role in proving that the next epidemic of cholera in London (1866) was water-borne - even Farr gave only a qualified acceptance to Snow's explanation. Nearly twenty years later such an authority as Hirsch [Dr. August Hirsch,a German physician and public health official, authority on cholera andd supporter of the miasma theory] was still referring to contaminated water as a "predisposing cause" of cholera. Among English writers of distinction Budd seems to have stood nearly if not quite alone in prompt and unqualified acceptance of Snow's theory as well as his facts.
Any immediate influence which Snow's work may have had in promoting the improvement of public water supplies is obscured by the fact that extensive improvements in several of London's supplies, including that of the Southwark and Vauxhall Company, had already been ordered before the epidemic of 1853-54,to be effective within specified time limits. Nevertheless he did succeed in convincing his contemporaries that sewage pollution of drinking-water was a major rather than a minor factor in the conveyance of cholera. Thirty years later, when all controversy on this point had subsided, Sir John Simon, who, in Snow's lifetime, had stood aloof from him, classed his proof of this principle as "the most important truth yet acquired by medical science for the prevention of epidemics of cholera." [3]
Snow lived only four years after the epidemic of 1854, and in this time he had no opportunity to add to his observations of cholera, which had disappeared from Great Britain. He continued, however, to pursue studies extending to other diseases two principles which he had established for cholera: the tremendous importance of water as a vehicle of specific infection, and the harmlessness -- as regards infectious disease -- of the "effuvia" from dead organic matter, which were so generally considered at the time to breed pestilence. For both these doctrines, especially the latter, he was severely criticized, but avoiding heated controversy, he sought facts. In 1858, in a paper on Drainage ond Water Supply in Connexion with the Public Health (click here), one of the last published in his life-time, he deals with both subjects. Drawing upon the reports of the Registrar-General for his data, he first shows that among workers in the notoriously offensive trades, such as tanning and soap boiling, mortality rates are, in general, no higher than at corresponding ages in the whole group of industrially employed males. He then turns, by contrast, to the demonstrable relation between mortality and the sewage pollution of water. Presenting tables compiled from the Registrar-General's reports, he shows that prior to improvements in the water supply of the south districts of london, which were completed in the second quarter of 1855, the mortality rates from all causes, from typhus (mostly typhoid fever), and from diarrhoea in this area had consistently exceeded the rates in the districts north of the Thames. Dating from the change in water supply, this relationship was reversed, the rates of mortality being lower in the south districts than in the north. Here his work ended.
Of Snow's character, the circumstances of his life, the range of his interests, and the position which he held in his profession, an illuminating account is given in the memoir by Richardson, his warm friend and admirer [Dr. Benjamin Ward Richardson (1828-1896) was a physician, anaesthetist, physiologist, sanitarian, and extensive writer of medical history]. It gives the picture of a man singularly endowed with the ability to think in straight lines and the courage to follow his own thought. In medicine these abilities placed him in the front ranks of his day; in epidemiology they carried him a generation beyond it.
WADE HAMPTON FROST
Sources:
1. Sutherland, John, in Report of the General Board of Health on the epidemic cholera of 1848 and 1849, London, W. Clowes and Sons, 1854, Appendix (A), p. 8.
2. Report on the last two cholera epidemics of London as affected by the consumption of impure water; addressed to the Rt. Hon. the President of the General Board of Health by the Medical Officer of the Board.
3. Simon, Sir John, English sanitary institutions, London, Cassell and Co,, 189O, p.262.
Map Introduction to "Grand Experiment"
The 1856 map of England and Wales shows what took place in London during the 1854-55 cholera epidemic. Dr. John Snow was already busy with the Broad Street Pump outbreak in his home neighborhood, but the oportunity to expand his London epidemiologic horizon was too challenging to avoid. The redlined area below shows where his new challenge took place.
Two major developments enabled Snow's epidemiological quest. First, in 1841, the decade-interval population census in England and Wales began listing names of every individual. This was expanded in the 1851 census to include names, ages, sex, occupations and places of birth of each individual. Coupled with the equally detailed registraton of deaths, the 1851 census data enabled the derivation of mortality rates by age and sex, location and occupation.
Second, during the 1850s, two water companies that served similar London households with drinking water in an area south of the River Thames were strongly mandated by legislation to move their Thames River input valves to a region up-river where the water was more pure.
The tidal River Thames caused much of London's water polution problem since human waste that was disposed in the river was alternatively moved back and forth in the river, passing by the water companies input valves, but was never fully flushed out of the system. For a while, the river just smelled bad and the household water was unappetizing to consume. But then when cholera returned to the city in 1853-54, the River Thames became deadly. Dr. John Snow had theorized that cholera was due to a water-borne microscopic organism of some form or another (Vibrio cholerae had not yet been knowingly identified), now to be tested. Snow did not believe that cholera stemmed from bad smells or noxious air, referred to as "miasmas," the prevailinig theory of the day. To test his water hypothesis, he decided to take advantage of the slow up-river move of Southwark and Vauxhall company (red dot), leaving its customers for several years exposed to cholera.
At the same time, the Lambeth company (green dot) had successfully moved its inlet up river where the water was cleaner, not touched by the tides of the polluted River Thames, while the Southwark and Vauxhall Company delayed moving until two years later, opening an interval when one water company had moved and the other had not. As Snow noted, in an extensive part of London, there was complete intermixing of the water supply of the Southwark and Vauxhall Company with that of the Lambeth Company. Hence he had, what epidemiologists deemed to be a "natural experiment," not based on random allocation to the respective exposed and unexposed groups, but are very similar by circumstances. For testing his river water hypothesis using detailed mortality data, he felt that it was a "grand experiment," worthy of the name.
Source: Colton, GW. Colton's Atlas of the World, map of England and Wales,(created 1855), J.H. Colton and Company, New York, 1856.
ON THE MODE OF COMMUNICATION OF CHOLERA, PART 3
This second edition of John Snow's book, issued in 1855 three years before his death, is the historical treatise for which Snow is most famous in epidemiology. Included here is the third part of the book, pages 55-98, that addresses the "Grand Experiment." To peruse the 138 page book in its entirety, click on "JS Cholera Book" in the navbar at the top of each page.
Source: Snow, John. On the Mode of Communication of Cholera, 2nd Edition, London: John Churchill, New Burlington Street, England, 1855, pp. 55-98.
Contents of Part 3, pages 55-98
Outbreak of cholera at Deptford caused by polluted water
Communication of cholera by means of the water of rivers which receive the contents of sewers
Influence of the water supply on the epidemic of 1832, in London
Table II showing the mortality from cholera, and the water supply
Influence of the water supply on the epidemic of 1849, in London
Table III showing this influence
Communication of cholera by Thames water in the autumn of 1848
New water supply of the Lambeth Company
Effect of this new supply in the epidemic of autumn 1853
Table V showing this effect
Table VI showing this effect
Intimate mixture of the water supply of the Lambeth with that of the Southwark and Vauxhall Company
Opportunity thus afforded of gaining conclusive evidence of the effect of the water supply on the mortality from cholera
Account of inquiry for obtaining this evidence
Result of the inquiry as regards the first four weeks of the epidemic in 1854
Result of the inquiry as regards the first seven weeks of the epidemic in 1854
Table VII illustrating these results
Table VIII illustrating these results
Inquiry of the Registrar-General respecting the effect of the water supply of the above-mentioned companies during the later period of the epidemic
Comparison of the mortality of 1849 and 1854, in districts supplied by the above-mentioned companies
Effect of the water supply on the mortality from cholera amongst the inmates of workhouses and prisons
Cholera in the district of the Chelsea Water Company
Effect of dry weather to increase the impurity of the Thames
Relation between the greater or less mortality from cholera in London and the less or greater elevation of the ground
This relation shown to depend on the difference of water supply at different elevations
OUTBREAK OF CHOLERA AT DEPTFORD CAUSED BY POLLUTED WATER
Just at the time when the great outbreak of cholera occurred in the neighborhood of Broad Street, Golden Square, there was an equally violent irruption in Deptford, but of a more limited extent. About ninety deaths took place in a few days, amongst two or three score of small houses, in the north end of New Street and an adjoining row called French's Fields. Deptford is supplied with very good water from the river Ravensbourne by the Kent Water Works, and until this outbreak there was but little cholera in the town, except amongst some poor people, who had no water except what they got by pailsful from Deptford Creek -- an inlet of the Thames. There had, however, been a few cases in and near New Street, just before the great outbreak. On going to the spot on September 12th and making inquiry, I found that the houses in which the deaths had occurred were supplied by the Kent Water Works, and the inhabitants never used any other water. The people informed me, however, that for some few weeks the water had been extremely offensive when first turned on; they said it smelt like a cesspool, and frothed like soap suds. They were in the habit of throwing away a few pailsful of that which first came in, and collecting some for use after it became clear. On inquiring in the surrounding streets, to which this outbreak of cholera did not extend, viz., Wellington Street, Old King Street, and Hughes's Fields, I found that there had been no alteration in the water. I concluded, therefore, that a leakage had taken place into the pipes supplying the places where the outbreak occurred, during the intervals when the water was not turned on. Gas is known to get into the water-pipes occasionally in this manner, when they are partially empty, and to impart its taste to the water. There are no sewers in New Street or French's Fields, and the refuse of all kinds consequently saturates the ground in which the pipes are laid. I found that the water collected by the people, after throwing away the first portion, still contained more organic matter than that supplied to the adjoining streets. On adding nitrate of silver and exposing the specimens to the light, a deeper tint of brown was developed in the former than in the latter.
COMMUNICATION OF CHOLERA BY MEANS OF THE WATER OF RIVERS WHICH RECEIVE THE CONTENTS OF THE SEWERS
All the instances of communication of cholera through the medium of water, above related, have resulted from the contamination of a pump-well, or some other limited supply of water; and the outbreaks of cholera connected with the contamination, though sudden and intense, have been limited also; but when the water of a river becomes infected with the cholera evacuations emptied from on board ship, or passing down drains and sewers, the communication of the disease, though generally less sudden and violent, is much more widely extended; more especially when the river water is distributed by the steam engine and pipes connected with water-works. Cholera may linger in the courts and alleys crowded with the poor, for reasons previously pointed out, but I know of no instance in which it has been generally spread through a town or neighborhood, amongst all classes of the community, in which the drinking water has not been the medium of its diffusion. Each epidemic of cholera in London has borne a strict relation to the nature of the water-supply of its different districts, being modified only by poverty, and the crowding and want of cleanliness which always attend it.
INFLUENCE OF THE WATER SUPPLY ON THE EPIDEMIC OF 1832, IN LONDON
The following table shows the number of deaths from cholera in the various districts of London in 1832, together with the nature of the water supply at that period.[1]
TABLE II SHOWING THE MORTALITY FROM CHOLERA, AND THE WATER SUPPLY